Eunkyu Seong

Ph.D. Student, Department of Economics, SNU

Room m109, Bldg 16

1 Gwanak-ro, Gwanak-gu

Seoul 08826, Republic of Korea

I am currently in progress of the Ph.D program at the Department of Economics, Seoul National University.

Research Interests

My main research interest is estimation and inference for causal parameters, identified by instrumental variables.

Education

B.Ec., Chungnam National University, 2015—2021.

Presentations

2025
- The Korean Economic Association 2025 Economics Joint Conference, February
- The 19th International Symposium on Econometric Theory and Applications, June

Research

Work in Progress

Are the Bank of Korea’s Inflation Forecasts biased toward the target?

Eunkyu Seong, and Seojeong Lee

Work in progress, Dec 2024

Abs PDF Code Website

The Bank of Korea (BoK) regularly publishes the Economic Outlook, offering forecasts for key macroeconomic variables such as GDP growth, inflation, and unemployment rates. This study examines whether the BoK’s inflation forecasts exhibit bias, specifically a tendency to align with its inflation target. We extend the Mincer and Zarnowitz (1969) test to incorporate state-dependency, defining the state of the economy based on whether realized inflation falls below the target at the time of the forecast. Our analysis reveals that the BoK’s inflation forecasts arebiased under this state-dependent framework. Furthermore, we show that applying an AR(1) bias correction strategy enhances forecast accuracy, as demonstrated by a reduction in root mean square error.